Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Super Bowl LIX is set, and it’s a rematch from two years ago between the Eagles and Chiefs, taking place in New Orleans on Feb. 9. You can watch it on FOX.
The Eagles punched their ticket by obliterating the Commanders, ending the Cinderella story for their division rivals. The Chiefs earned their bid by doing what they seem to do every postseason, outlasting the Bills in a close, high-scoring game.
Kansas City now goes for a record third consecutive Super Bowl title.
Next week I will make my pick for the game, and add a couple more props, but let’s give out a couple for now to get the juices flowing and try to get ahead of any potential line moves.
Dallas Goedert Over 4.5 Catches (-135 at DraftKings)
I wouldn’t be surprised if this number gets bumped up to 5.5 by the time kickoff comes around. The Chiefs have struggled all year against tight ends. They gave up 111 yards to Ravens tight end Isiah Likely, 140 to Brock Bowers of the Raiders, 92 yards to the 49ers’ George Kittle, and allowed 63 yards to Texans tight end Dalton Schultz in the divisional round.
Goedert is a tough matchup for the Chiefs, and is coming off an impressive seven-catch, 85-yard performance in the NFC title game. With all the defense’s attention likely on Saquon Barkley, that opens things up over the middle of the field for Goedert to get open, and I expect him to have another busy night catching the football.
Under 6.5 Total Punts (-115 at DraftKings)
Both teams are coming off of games that went way over their totals, and the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl, it was a 38-35 shootout. Sure, just betting the Over of 49 total points scored is a way to attack this, and I do lean that direction, but betting Under on punts is a way to make a similar bet without actually needing the teams to score.
The Eagles are ultra-aggressive on fourth down, and any third-and-3 or third-and-4 will likely lead to them using Jalen Hurts on the “tush push” a couple times and moving the sticks. We saw Andy Reid go for it on fourth down on his own 39 against the Bills early in the AFC title game, so we know he has a willingness to eschew the punter as well.
Getting to seven total punts here will be tough with these two offenses and aggressive coaches. Rooting for the punter to stay on the sideline might be a good bet to make.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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