U.S. President Donald Trump at a press conference at the end of the NATO summit in July 12, 2018.
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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House on Monday, and much of the world is watching on with bated breath.
The prospect of more unpredictable foreign and trade policies, particularly the threat of universal trade tariffs of 10-20%, has stoked concerns internationally and spooked financial markets. But Trump’s transactional approach and his “America First” policy are not universally feared.
In fact, many countries welcome a new era that’s being labeled “Trump 2.0.”
“Trump’s return is lamented by America’s long-term allies, but almost nobody else,” the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank said as it published a global poll that found that people in China and Russia were more optimistic about Trump’s return to power than long-standing allies in Europe and Asia.
“Many think Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and U.S.-China relations,” the poll of over 28,000 people in 24 countries found.
“In countries from India and China to Turkey and Brazil, more respondents think Trump will be good for America, for their country and for peace in the world than think he will be bad for them,” the ECFR said of the findings.
The survey showed that respondents in India, Saudi Arabia and Russia were the most optimistic about Trump’s return to office, both in terms of it being good for U.S. citizens and for their own countries.
Almost 60% of Russian respondents felt Trump’s election was good for U.S. citizens and 49% felt it was a good thing for Russia.
Closely following, 46% of Chinese respondents felt Trump’s return was good for China. That’s despite Trump’s threat to impose tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods imported from China, a move that could deal a blow to the Chinese economy but also backfire, likely pushing up prices for U.S. consumers.
Russian servicemen near a U.S. M2 Bradley fighting vehicle captured in Ukraine.
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Positive sentiment toward Trump among the original BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) — and the belief that a more peaceful world might ensue as a result of his presidency — was far higher than in the EU, U.K. and South Korea, where only 11% of citizens polled regarded a Trump presidency as a good thing for their future.
Just a tad more cheerful, only 15% of British respondents thought Trump would be good for the U.K. So much for the “special relationship.”
“When Donald Trump returns to the White House, much of the world will welcome him. In Europe, anxiety is widespread, but people in many other countries feel either relaxed or actively positive about Trump’s second term,” the ECFR noted as it published the survey, conducted in November.
“U.S. allies in Europe and South Korea are notably pessimistic about the incoming president — suggesting a further weakening of the geopolitical ‘West’,” it added.
Trump empowered
Geopolitical analysts say things will be different with President Trump this time round, and the world needs to be ready.
Not only will he be emboldened by the scale of his 2024 electoral victory, the firm support of a unified Republican Party and returning to the White House with more experience, he has also surrounded himself with loyalists who are more ideologically aligned with him, noted Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group.
Bremmer told CNBC that Trump 2.0 will see the president hold more power and sway than before, while the West and the Group of Seven — a group that includes the U.K., Canada and Germany — lose status.
“Trump has significantly more power vis-a-vis other countries this time around — both U.S. allies and adversaries — so they’re more inclined to listen to him and take him seriously,” Bremmer told CNBC in emailed comments.
“Trump also has more countries and populations lined up in support of his “my country first” approach to governing,” Bremmer added.
“He had a strong relationship with Israel and the Gulf states in his first term, but now add to that Italy, Hungary, Argentina, El Salvador … and large parts of populations in a number of other countries as well. It’s very different than Trump showing up at the G20 and everyone snickering behind his back,” he noted.
“Today’s G-Zero world is a very different environment,” Bremmer added, referring to his view of a world in which no one power or group of powers is willing and able to drive a global agenda to maintain international order.
Market analysts agree that while Trump’s antipathy toward China, the U.S.’ greatest economic rival, is well known, his long-standing ambivalence toward NATO and his anger over a continuing trade deficit with much of Europe make allies on the continent a target for Trump’s likely more assertive, and potentially hostile, trade and defense policies.
European countries make up the majority of constituents of NATO and the EU is the U.S.’ largest trading partner as a bloc.
“Here in Europe, we are concerned,” market strategist Bill Blain [if he’s not independent can we state the company/org he’s from please] said in emailed comments last week. “However, the rest of the World is largely unbothered at the scale of change that might be coming.”
“It’s clear the geopolitical lines are being redrawn. So will the grounds of global economics be redefined,” Blain added.
