Early voting counts in Tasmania’s election points to the Liberals being in the box seat to rule, with the incumbent government’s vote rising and Labor’s collapsing.
Saturday’s vote, triggered when the minority Liberal premier, Jeremy Rockliff, lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island’s second in 16 months.
All opinion polls have pointed towards another hung parliament, with neither of the major parties gaining enough support to reach the 18-seat mark required for a majority.
At 8pm (AEDT) and with 14% of the vote counted, early tallies showed a 2.4% swing toward the Liberals and a 3.9% swing away from Labor.
The Liberals held 14 seats coming into the poll, with Labor on 10, the Greens five and the remaining six either independents or other parties.
The election analyst Casey Briggs said it was unclear if the Liberals would end the election with more than 14 seats.
“The Liberal party is looking well-placed to retain virtually all of their seats,” Briggs said. “They may even gain, as we have been talking about, a fourth in Braddon while Labor is struggling to keep its 10.”
Labor has flagged trying to govern in minority even if it finishes with fewer seats than the Liberals.
Rockliff and the Labor leader, Dean Winter, have both ruled out doing a formal deal with the Greens to govern.
However, Winter has kept the door ajar for a no-strings-attached informal supply and confidence arrangement with the Greens.
“In terms of who wins the most seats, we’re in a very different political environment than we have been a number of elections ago,” the Labor upper house MP Sarah Lovell told the ABC. “I don’t know that it’s fair to say that the party with the most seats automatically gets to claim victory.”
The Liberal incumbent MP Eric Abetz said the party with more seats should get first crack at governing.
“I have every expectation that at the end of tonight the Liberal party will be holding more seats than the Labor party,” he said.
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have been in minority since 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench.
Johnston and fellow independent Craig Garland, who are left-leaning and voted for the no-confidence motion against Rockliff, are likely to be returned.
It could take weeks for the final count to be completed, with the last postal votes not expected to arrive until the end of July.
Election eve polling by YouGov had the Liberals (31%) and Labor (30%) neck and neck, followed by backing for independents (20%) and the Greens (16%).
There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13bn by 2028.
The no-confidence motion, put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbenchers, was critical of the budget and a bungled ferry delivery.
Another key issue has been plans for a $945m Hobart stadium, which is backed by the Liberals and Labor but opposed by the Greens and several crossbenchers.
