LONDON — President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are a major concern among U.S. and international business leaders, with industry titans warning of trouble ahead.
Speaking at CNBC’s CONVERGE LIVE in Singapore, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned of “fighting” between countries over the duties.
“Tariffs are going to cause fighting between countries … I’m not necessarily talking about military. But think about U.S., Canada, Mexico, China … There will be fighting, and that will have consequences,” he said, speaking to CNBC’s Sara Eisen on Wednesday.
Trump’s 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports took effect Wednesday, with the EU, Australia and Canada among the regions and countries affected. U.S. markets have been in turmoil over the duties this week.
Dalio said the current environment is “an extension of the patterns of history” — giving 1930s Germany as an example.
There was a hike in tariffs to boost revenue and a buildup of the country’s domestic base as well as a writedown of debt at the time, Dalio said. “Be nationalistic, be protectionistic, be militaristic. That is the way these things operate,” Dalio said. “The issue is really the confrontation of all of this,” he said.
Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff described reciprocity between countries as “good” if they treat each other the same way. But he said the “what and the how” are “very important.” “If you can’t put the what and the how in a consistent, clear and meaningful way, then you could end up with high levels of volatility and conflict,” Benioff said, speaking at CONVERGE.
Risk of recession
Alec Kersman, managing director and head of Asia-Pacific at Pimco, warned of an increased risk of recession because of the tariffs. There is a “maybe 35% probability” that the U.S. will enter a recession this year, Kersman told CNBC’s Martin Soong at CONVERGE LIVE, up from Pimco’s December 2024 estimate of 15%.
Despite that, Kersman said, Pimco’s base case scenario is that the U.S. economy will grow 1% to 1.5%, “quite a significant decrease” from its earlier projections.
Kersman advised market participants to be “more patient” in terms of rebalancing investments. “There’s a lot of noise in the markets right now, and you want to give it three to six months before you make that action,” he said. Tariffs will create “more distinct winners and losers,” and added, “The trend of globalization is is being redirected, and there are no more universal laws of how capital will behave.”
Consumer spending
However, Kamal Bhatia, president and CEO of Principal Asset Management, said trade wars caused by tariffs could in fact mean that consumers spend more at home.
Most people will underestimate this potential increase in expenditure because of a focus on the “external effects” on gross domestic product, Bhatia said at CONVERGE LIVE. Countries could “go back to being insular,” he said, leading to patriotism and better-than-expected gross domestic product growth.
The potential for increased domestic expenditure was also brought up by Alibaba’s Chairman Joe Tsai. China’s domestic consumption “needs a boost,” thanks to “tariffs and geopolitics,” Tsai said at CONVERGE LIVE — the average effective U.S. duty on Chinese goods is set to reach 33%, according to Nomura estimates.
“Look at the Chinese consumer. They’re very, very healthy. Household balance sheet is very, very strong. You’re looking at over $20 trillion of bank deposits by households. So, they’re standing on the sidelines waiting to spend,” Tsai said.
Tsai said he is “glass half full” about Trump’s trade policy. “The Trump administration will want to have more American companies doing business in China,” he said. “Eventually, you know, the tariffs being a negotiating tool maybe, but at some point things will sort of get better,” he added.
EU reaction
Europe quickly retaliated against the steel and aluminum tariffs, saying it would impose counter-tariffs on 26 billion euros ($28.33 billion) worth of U.S. goods starting next month. “Tariffs are taxes, they are bad for business and worse for consumers, they are disrupting supply chains, they bring uncertainty for the economy,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters during a press conference Wednesday.
CNBC’s Amala Balakrishner, Anniek Bao, Katrina Bishop, Holly Ellyatt and Sam Meredith contributed reporting.
